Timing the gold market

Timing the gold market today when th Venture Exchange had quite a correction from about 2,400 to 1,350 points. The juniors corrected much further than the senior and midtier golds. In September, the Venture Index was at its high from last year, about 1,750 points, a support level, and then there was a big sell-off in gold at the end of September as the gold price was knocked down about $300/oz with central bank Intervention. The index also took a quick, sharp drop on that sell-off in gold. That really hammered a bottom into that market, down to 1350. Since then, it’s rallied up a fair bit, but I’m still looking for about another 200 points. I’d like to see it get over 1,800 to be sure that it’s in a new bull move for the juniors. That would be a higher high, above the level where it fell from in September.

Shanghai Gold Exchange

Shanghai Gold Exchange predict Shanghai Gold Exchange to raise silver forward margins it will raise margins on silver forwards to 18 percent from 15 percent from Monday if the silver contract hits its daily trade limit on settlement on Friday. The exchange said it would lift daily trade limits on silver forward contracts to 15 percent from 12 percent if the contract hits limit up or down on settlement on Friday.

Precious Metals Gold prices trading at US$130 premium over platinum

Gold: 1641.00 – down US$40 on the week. The only positive result for gold over the course of last week is that it is still trading at US $130 premium over platinum. Gold has rediscovered its inverse relationship with the US$ and it is now reacting positively and correlates to rises in equities and also with a stronger Euro.
The US$1600 level was not seriously tested but it seems that gold is firmly stuck, for the time being, between U$1600 and US$1695.

We have seen a pick-up in physical buying ahead of Diwali but it has been less than what we expected. I still look for the gold price to rise but this current see-saw action curbs a lot of enthusiasm and conviction out of the market.

Option volatilities midrates:  Gold atm
1 month       28.00 % up       0.75 %
3 month       28.30 % down 0.20 %
6 month       28.75 % down 0.75 %
1 year          29.40 % down 0.60 %
EFP (Exchange for physical) midrate: Gold spot to December Comex: US $ 1.05
ETF: Holdings nearly unchanged at 2326 tons overall
Support: 1585 and 1568       Resistance: 1664 and 1692
OUTLOOK: Neutral

The Price of Gold is once again Setting a Record High

The price of gold is once again setting a record high, with Washington's inability to reach agreement to curb debt and avoid a devastating declaration of insolvency of the state.

The price of gold has started the week in Asian markets nominal marking a new record surpassing $ 1,618 an ounce, while credit rating agencies warn of a possible cut in the rating "AAA" U.S..

The spot gold price has risen almost 14% so far this year.

All indications are that we will see an extension of the quantitative easing QE3, which translated into Spanish would delay the problem and the price of gold will continue to grow as international financial instability intensifying go.

The Analysts Revised upwards their Forecasts for the price of Gold

The six-monthly survey of financial analysts by Reuters shows expectations for increases in gold prices. According to respondents, the debt problems in developed countries and rising demand from emerging gold and silver, and the lax monetary policy of the Federal Reserve are the main causes of optimism for the price of gold.

More than half of respondents expect the gold price remains above $ 1,500 a troy ounce at the end of 2011. In a similar survey in January, financial analysts were less optimistic, with only one in five predicting a price above $ 1,500.

It is not surprising that most analysts will drag the market development of gold, precious metals, or look as monetary metals, are still unknown to many conventional investors. After a generation without paying attention or understand or follow them carefully or have the necessary knowledge and models to value them. Their forecasts, but forecasts are a commentary on the present. The majority of the big financial houses do not even have specialists dedicated to this sector.

A few voices like James Turk, Jim Rogers and Marc Faber, they have matched their predictions and are betting on gold since before the start of their current upward cycle in 1999. Many who have been more prescient about the price of gold and silver meet in August in London for the GATA conference. They explain the journey that still lies ahead for the price of gold and why gold is far from being in a bubble.

In 2010, for the first time in two decades, the world's central banks became net buyers of gold. 2011 is on track to double those flows net of accumulation, with purchases like the Bank of Mexico. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), between 2008 and 2011 the central banks added more than 900 tons of gold reserves.